Identification and Qualitative Evaluation of Risk Factors in the Construction Projects in Iraq

Article history: Received 16 March 2021 Accepted 30 April 2021 Construction projects in Iraq face many dangers that cause exceeding the estimated cost of the project and not completing the project on time, and since the risk management process in construction projects is of great importance in controlling and reducing the impact of risks in construction projects, so it is necessary to identify these risks and evaluate them correctly in order to increase accuracy and the health of the subsequent stages of the risk management process in construction projects. This paper aims to identify the most important risks in construction projects in Iraq and to conduct a qualitative assessment of the identified risks and arrange them according to their importance. The researcher adopted the questionnaire method as a tool to determine the risks and used the technique of probability and effect matrix to conduct the qualitative assessment of the identified risks. The study found that there are 48 risk factors that constitute the most dangerous factor in construction projects in Iraq, and 9 of the determining factors were within the high level of risk, and at the forefront of which was the inability of the owner to finance the project.


Introduction
Risk is an event that may or may not occur and may lead to increase costs, delay of the project, poor quality [1]. The risk is associated with human life and is present in all human endeavors. However, the complex work involved in construction work makes the latter more vulnerable [2], and their successes depending on the level of risk [3]. Construction projects are involved a lot of inherent risks because including many of the contracting parties, such as the owners, contractors, designers, suppliers, subcontractors, etc. [4]. Risk can be evaluated using different types of information [5][6][7]. The identification of risks and documentation provides the project team with the knowledge and capacity to anticipate events [8]. Reference [1] adds that the project should be viewed systematically and from different angles to obtain complete risk identification. The project risk identification phase facilitates the effective study of activities and spaces in which organizational resources may be at risk, which in turn affects the achievement of its objectives and actions [9]. Many techniques and tools can be used in identifying project risks such as Checklists, Interviews, Past experience, Brainstorming [10][11][12]. For taking further measures on the risks that have been identified, risks must be evaluating the likelihood of their occurrence and their impact on the project objectives and combining them [13]. The probability and impact matrix can be used to determine the level of risk during the risk evaluation process by comparing the likelihood of risk against the severe consequences, and in this way, it helps clarify risk and make a decision [14], In recent years, construction projects in Iraq suffered from exposure to a lot of risks that affect project goals and cause the current research aim to:

Identifying risks in construction projects in
Diyala governorate for the period from (2020-2021), evaluating and arranging them according to their priorities. 2. Providing a scientific and sound basis that helps in identifying the risks faced by construction projects. 3. Conducting the qualitative assessment of the identified risks and arranging them according to their relative importance.

Literature review
In Iraq and many other countries, many studies about risk management in construction projects especially the identification risks stage have been conducted. For example, Reference [15] attempted to Identify and evaluate the business risk management in construction projects in Iraq. A questionnaire survey and personal interviews are the methodologies adopted in this study. The most significant risk factors that identified by this study were poor estimation, inadequate construction planning, project changes during construction, poor contract management, finance, and payment problems. Also, the study reached that enhancing the communication between the project parties is very important for controlling the construction time and cost. Reference [16] attempted to discuss the risk identification phase in Iraq construction projects, classify them, and ranking the identified risk factors depending on their frequency and severity. The study adopted the questionnaire survey and personal interviews as a methodology to achieve its goals. The study identified 63 risk factors in the questionnaire form. The study found that the significance Index for each risk group of factors as follows: management risk, legal risk, market risk, financial risk, technical risk, political risk, social, security risk, and environmental risk. Reference [17] conduct a review on risk management in the construction projects in Iraq for covering the concepts of risk management in the construction projects, also reviewed methods for analyzing risks and control them. the result of this study was the Lack of allocations of additional finances that can be covering the treatment of the risk, there's a weakness of application of risk management methodology and weakness in experience and dealing with it, lack of studies in this field, lack of use of international expertise , lack of training programs and courses, selection of unqualified contractors and companies work in unstable areas, Reference [18]Attempted to classify the main risks in contractual projects. This study aimed to draw up a list of risks facing airport construction projects in Saudi Arabia in addition to clarifying the expected results of this study. An in-depth review of the literature related to risk identification, in addition to structured interviews with experts in airport construction companies and analyzing data using descriptive statistics, has been relied upon. This study concluded with the identification of five main risks facing airport construction companies in the region. Saudi Arabia is among the fifty-four potential risks, and these risks include the absence of a clear risk management plan -delay in payment of dues -changes in designbureaucratic problems in dealing with the government -Change in demands. Reference [19] tried to identify and evaluate risk factors in construction projects. This study aimed to develop a model that helps in identifying and analyzing risks that affect construction costs and time in Egyptian contracting companies. The descriptive approach was adopted, and the study tool was represented by a questionnaire. Risks Have been characterized based on the descriptive statistics represented by the arithmetic mean and the standard deviation and then weighed, and develop a computer model to predict them. The results of the study were: The development of a model that can predict the main risks that affect the time and cost of projects contracting in Egypt.

The research methodology
In this paper, the author will use the questionnaire tool to identify the risks in construction projects in Iraq and adopt the probability and impact technique for evaluating the risks after identification. The research methodology can be summarized as follows: 1-Collecting information about the risks in construction projects from previous studies and personal interviews that conducted by the author with many project managers, consultants, supervisors, and contractors to benefit from their experience for designing the questionnaire form. 2-Designing the initial questionnaire form and presenting it to a group of arbitrators and experts for evaluation and submit their proposal. 3-Designing the final questionnaire form which includes two parts: General information about the study sample, and the probability of risk occurrence and its impact on construction projects. 4-distribution the questionnaire forms to a number of engineers specialized in the field of engineering 5-Using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) V25 software and Microsoft Excel 2010 software for analyzing the data. 6-Using the probability and impact matrix technique for qualitative risks evaluation by calculating the risk score for each risk factor through using equation 1. RS=P*I (1) where the risk score, RS, risk probability P and risk impact, I. 7-Arranging the risks according to the priority of attention

Probability and impact matrix
Risks in construction projects must be classified according to their severity by using probability and impact matrix as shown in Table  1. This matrix is constructed around the probability and impact of risks event. The matrix is split into several parts that present very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. These parts can be colored to distinguish one part relative to the other. Where the red color represents the very high and high level, and the yellow color represents a moderate level and the green color represents the low and very low level. These levels facilitate the classification of risks according to their severity and controlling them.

Data collection
The construction and housing sector in Diyala governorate were chosen as the study sample to ensure the reliability and accuracy of the results because the supervision and implementation of most construction projects in Iraq is the responsibility of this sector. The minimum sample number of respondents is (30) or more (Hogg et al., 2014) and it is necessary to collect more than this number to ensure the reliability of the results.
The researcher distributed (60) questionnaire forms to a number of engineers working in Diyala Governorate Directorates. (50) questionnaire forms were adopted in the statistical analysis, where (6) questionnaires were rejected because the responses are not completed in it, and 4 others were not recovered.

Reliability test
For any research, the acceptable results require using the tool of accurate measurement as one of the basic requirements before analyzing the data, a reliability test was conducted to check the internal consistency degree of the data collected from a questionnaire form. Cronbach's coefficient alpha (Cα) was used to measure the inner consistency for the data. Cronbach's coefficient alpha is characterized by a value between the numbers (0 -1), where the number one indicates for high consistency (Cronbach & Lee J,1951). The result of the reliability test showed a high degree of questionnaire reliability as illustrated in Table  2.

.1General information
This section consisted of general information about the sample of the research. The frequency ratio for the first questionnaire part was calculated according to the references [20], [21]by using the equation (2) P% = (fi / n) *100 (2) where the frequencies ratio, P %

The workplace responses
The questionnaire forms were distributed to 4 governmental institutions in the Diyala governorate. Figure (1) shows the percentage of the questionnaire sample in each institution.

Work sector
The private sector and public sectors are the main work sectors that involving in the sample of the research. Figure 4. shows the percentage of the work sector of the respondents.

6.2.1.3The academic qualification
The academic qualification of the engineers included in the questionnaire sample was illustrated in Figure 5.     Table 3.

Occurrence probability of risks and its impact
The data of probability occurrence of risks and its impact on construction projects in Iraq was analyzed by using the software of SPSS v.25, for calculating the arithmetic mean for both probability occurrence of the risk and its impact and calculating the score of risk according to equation 1 and application it in the probability and impact matrix to identify the level of risk. finally arranging them according to severity level. Table 3 illustrates the arithmetic mean for both probability occurrence of the risk and its impact and the risk score for the identified risks. It was divided from very high to low level of influence. The risk factor of the inability of the owner to finance the project showed in the first rank according to influence level of the risk indicator was (19.46), which belongs to the category of risks of financial origin, while the risk of changes in the design appeared in the second rank with a risk index of (18.30), and in the third rank the risk of errors in estimating the quantitative with a high-risk index of (17.48) while the risk of mismatch the structural and architectural design appeared in the fourth rank with a high-risk index of (15.13), followed by the risk of the impact of change orders at the fifth rank with a score risk (14.56) and other ranking of risks was illustrated in Table 4. The risks that have very high and high influence level represents the most significant factor and critical risks that mast be monitoring and controlling. These risks are ranked according to their category belong as shown in Table 5   The un clarity of the owner requirements 11.76 Design and Planning

Conclusions
Construction projects face many risks that cause exceeding the estimated project cost and not completing the project within the specified time and the identification of these risks is an important phase for managing and controlling them. Therefore, the authors attempt to identify risks that face the construction projects in Diyala governorate which help in construction project management. From the results, the authors concluded the follows: 1. The study identified 48 risk factors, which represent the most common risks in construction projects in Iraq. 2. From the result of qualitative risk analyses, 9 risk factors showed in the red zone of probability and impact matrix which reflects the high probability and impact of such factors, and these risks represented the most significant risk factors. 3. The inability of the owner to finance the project represents the main risk factor that faces the construction projects and has the first rank according to influence level.