Forecasting Future Demand in Two of The Busiest Us Airports Using Simplified Models
Keywords:
Demand forecasting, econometric analysis, airport planning, regression, SimulationAbstract
In airport planning process, there is always a crucial need for good and reliable air traffic demand estimate. It is equally important for airport authorities and airline carriers, for in the case of under estimated demand, there would be frequent congestions and delays. Conversely; overestimates would lead to unjustified expenditure which may lead to financial problems to all parties. The accurate and reliable models are not highly sophisticated in nature. In this paper, two econometric models were developed to forecast the passenger enplanements in two of the busiest airports in the United States of America. Many national and local socioeconomic variables were analyzed to come up with simple, yet accurate models. It was found that the total aggregate variables including per capita gross domestic production and population, have more influence on demand in the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport than the local variables, while the same factors, but in their regional scale, proofed to be more influencing in the case of John F Kennedy International Airport.
Downloads
References
Rengaraju, V.V., Thamizh A. V. “Modeling for Air Travel Demand” ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 118, No.2, 1992.pp: 371-380
Matthew G. Karlaftis. “Demand Forecasting in Regional Airports: Dynamic Tobit Models with Garch Errors “. Proceedings of 7th Symposium on Air, Rio de Janeiro, 26 To 28 November 2008
Abed, S. Y., Ba-Fail, A. O. & Jasimuddin, S. M. “An econometric Analysis of International Air Travel Demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 7, 2001. pp. 143–148.
Raquim N. Z., “Development of Iraqi Airport System Plan” Ph.D. Thesis, Public Work Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt, 2012.
Catherine H., “ International Airport Passenger and Aircraft Movement Forecasts” Transportation Research E-Circular, Number E-C040,2002, pp:3
Kazda, A., Caves, R.E., “Airport Design and Operation” 2nd ed. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2007.
FAA, Federal Aviation Administration, Forecast Process For 2014 TAF. Available at: <http://taf.faa.gov/Downloads/ForecastProcessfor2014TAF.docx > [Last accessed at Sep. 2015].
Ellsworth, S. R. “Estimating Air Passenger Travel in the Atlantic Region,” S.M. Thesis, The Graduate Academic Unit of Civil Engineering, The University of New Brunswick, Ottawa, Canada, 2000
Shen, Ni. (2006). Prediction of International Flight Operations at Sixty-six U.S. Airports. S.M Theses, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia.
Bakhshayesh, S., Sarkeshiki, F. “Development of Micro Econometrical Model for Domestic Passenger Demand. Case Study: Yazd Airport (OIYY)” Proceedings of 13th World Conference on Transport Research Society, Rio de Janeiro, 11 to 15 July 2010.
FAA, Federal Aviation Administration. Passenger Boarding (Enplanement) and All-Cargo Data for U.S. Airports, available at: http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraffic/airports/planning_capacity/, [last accessed at Sep. 2015].
United States Census Bureau, “Annual Estimates of the Population for the United” available at <http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2004/tables/NST-EST2004-01.xls> [Last accessed at Sep. 2015].
United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Per Capita Real GDP by Metropolitan Area (chained 2009 dollars)” available at <http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=2#reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1 > [last accessed at Sep. 2015].
Karlaftis, M.G., Papastavrou, J.D., Zografos, K.G., Charnes, J.C. (1996). Methodological Framework for Air-Travel Demand Forecasting. ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122, (2), 96-104
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2016 Yassir Nashaat A. Kareem
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.