Cellular automata -dynamic model for urban growth Baqubah City

Zainab Ahmed Al-kaissi; Ali Hussein Hameed

doi:10.24237/djes.2016.09302

Authors

Zainab Ahmed Al-kaissi Department of Roads & Transportation Engineering-Engineering College- Al-mustansiryah University
Ali Hussein Hameed Department of Civil-Engineering college –Diyala University

Keywords:

cellular automata, dynamic, model, urban, growth, the Dinamica

Abstract

This paper analyzes land use change in Baqubah city the capital of Iraq's Diyala Governorate, in the period from 2004 to 2010, using a cellular automata model. No previous research about this study in Iraq. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform to 2030 year and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index 81.5%, and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. The simulation scenario for the year 2030 showed an increase in the medium residential, high residential and road by (23%, 73%, and 11% respectively). As well as a significant decrease the orchard, vegetation, water, open area and mix by (41%, 36%, 20%, 23%, and 12% respectively)

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